Orange Bowl: Notre Dame-Penn State Preview, Props & Prediction

The first leg of the College Football Playoff kicks of at 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday night when seventh-seeded Notre Dame takes on sixth-seeded Penn State at the Orange Bowl in South Florida.Both programs are seeking to end three decade-long national championship droughts, but only one will move a step closer.The winner will face either Texas or Ohio State in the CFP national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta. The Longhorns and Buckeyes square off Friday night in the other semifinal at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.ODDS & TRENDSNotre Dame (13-1) is a consensus 1.0-point favorite despite a quick turnaround following the Fighting Irish’s 23-10 win over Georgia that was delayed 24 hours by the terrorist attack in New Orleans.The 1.5-point line at BetRivers has seen Notre Dame be backed by 52 percent of the money and 54 percent of the total bets. The Irish have covered the spread in a whopping 10 consecutive games at the book.Notre Dame’s -118 moneyline to win the game outright has been even more popular, drawing 83 and 59 percent of the action, respectively.BetRivers reported that each of Notre Dame’s past four games against Top 5 teams that have been played at neutral sites have gone under the total points line. While Penn State (13-2) is seeded sixth, the Nittany Lions are ranked fourth in the AP Top 25. That has contributed to 75 percent of the money backing the Under on the 45.0-point line.PROP PICKS–Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard 40+ Rushing Yards (-225 at DraftKings): Leonard gashing the Bulldogs up the middle was about the only thing the Irish offense had going for them early against Georgia. He finished the game with 80 yards on 11 carries — the ninth time Leonard has had at least 50 rushing yards in 14 games this season.–Penn State +1.5 First Half Spread (-136 at BetRivers): The Nittany Lions have outscored their past two opponents 45-7 in the first half. Meanwhile, the Irish offense struggled out of the gate against Georgia last week, managing only a pair of field goals before a turnover created by the defense led to a one-player, 13-yard touchdown drive just before the half.THE NEWSPenn State (13-2) is coming off a 31-14 quarterfinal victory over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve, which followed a 38-10 win at home over SMU in the first round. Penn State is chasing its third national championship and first since 1986.Notre Dame, in pursuit of its 12th consensus national title and first since 1988, scored a 23-10 quarterfinal victory over No. 2 seed Georgia last Thursday in the Sugar Bowl. That result snapped a 10-game losing streak in either major bowl games or national championship games.”I think it’s human nature to enjoy people saying good things about you,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “It’s human nature but we’ve talked all year about being misfits and that’s what we have to continue to be.”Notre Dame ranks third nationally in turnover margin (plus-18) and was plus-2 against Georgia, a big reason it prevailed despite amassing only 244 total yards. Penn State isn’t far behind as it is ranked 20th with a plus-10 turnover margin.Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts has accounted for seven of Notre Dame’s takeaways with six interceptions and one fumble recovery.”I think in a lot of ways, they are built similar to us,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “You look at their turnover ratio numbers, you look at their explosive play defense in terms of defending and limiting explosive plays. … And they do a great job of not beating themselves, which I think is a really important thing in college football. It starts with that, and then you kind of go from there and play to your strengths and things like that.”ORANGE BOWL HISTORYPenn State is 4-1 all-time in the Orange Bowl and will make its first appearance since 2006.